I studied economics in college. We used to learn a lot about the way things used to work and I remember even now that we had only 10 or 15 pages, at the end of the international economics manual, describing the future economy, the perfect economy, the Internet economy.
Reading the fact that during a recession Amazon had a 68% boost in revenues, I can’t help but wonder why would business even bother going the usual “brick-and-mortar store” way.
I strongly believe that online market business will continue to thrive – Google did (AdSense and AdWords), Apple did (iTunes and the App Store are basically online music and software markets), Amazon did, even Facebook did (social gaming market – mostly built on Facebook’s infrastructure – is estimated to reach $5 Billion by 2013).
The internet is full of these success stories. When you look beyond the marketing, the products delivered and the different brands, all the big guys are just huge online markets, delivering streams of 1 and 0.
Artificial Intelligence, in the sense we hope for and expect does not exist at the moment. At least not available to the general public (there are rumors of Google, the military and others building such a thing).
It has been the dream of advertisers worldwide to communicate one-to-one to potential consumers and I assume that we are not that far from reaching it. We have the tools to build it. The general public wants it.
I expect this to be the main feature of communication worldwide (not just advertising) in the century to come.
However – limiting such a thing to just advertising, or advertising as we know it, sounds ridiculous to say the least.
Here’s a very good presentation on the future of advertising agencies. Glad to see we share the same views. Even happier to know we have already implemented some of them .
As I previously gave you a brief (very brief) history of advertising here and here, now is the time to talk a little about tomorrow. About tomorrow’s agencies, as I see them.
New Media. Printed on old media.
I found a great post by Tim Williams called “What if the advertising agency died tomorrow”. Probably the best sentence I found there was “The advertising agency passed of a narrow mind. It died from a lack of understanding that there is no such thing as “new media”“. It states my take on interactive versus conventional perfectly.
The evolution of media
Long time ago print was king. Along came radio and TV. They changed the media scape and advertising as well. It was the birth of the 30 second spot, the blockbuster brand and helped advertising industry establish itself as one of the fastest growing industries.
This was also the birth of “trumpeter swan” creative and art directors, the birth of advertising festivals and a certain lifestyle for all those in this industry.
One day, a bright computer scientist by the name of Tim-Berners Lee, started what will has become the fastest growing media in the history of human kind: the world wide web. This was the wonder that tied people together and changed the way we see information, media and even ourselves as citizens of the world.
Changes
Frankly I find old media (print, TV, even radio), those one-way communication channels, so limited and limiting that I cannot comprehend their survival to this day. I am, however, sure they will converge to interactive driven media in a very short span of time.
So will agencies. Tomorrow’s “conventional” agencies will be interactive – powered. That’s why MB Dragan was repositioned to “Agency for Tomorrow”. An interactive agency that can deliver results just as well as conventional agencies.
Several years ago, before the iPhone was launched I was thinking about the current man-machine interaction methods. Most of them are built around touch. Buttons for example or the latest trend – the multitouch interface popularized by Apple.
But is this as good as it gets? Probably not. Enter motion detection and processing.
1. Motion detection and processing
Imagine having a huge screen in front of you. How would you interact with it? With a remote? Pressing buttons? Why not waving your hands around?
Funny? Maybe. Easy to use? For sure. We use gestures to communicate. Actually nonverbal communication amounts to almost 60% of meaning. And most of nonverbal communication is based on gestures. So why not really talk to computers?
About 3 years ago I was building a team focused on the study of video interaction based solely on gestures. The project was meant to run on Flash platforms and later used on mobile phones as a revolutionary way of interaction with mobile devices. Remember – that was previous to the iPhone. The project got canned due to lack of finance and I moved on.
This year I was thrilled when CamSpacelaunched. The technology is simply amazing not only by what it does but by what it can do. Imagine interacting with any device without keyboard, mouse or even touch. Here’s a quick demo:
I expect this kind of interactive processing mainstream in the next 5-10 years, used in entertainment, advertising, communication and even home appliances.
2. Brain to computer control
Throughout the centuries mankind has learned to control animals, tools and the world around it with physical gestures. Means of control got restricted to push, pull, touch etc. The time has come to redefine that.
Scientists and technology companies are working on developing brain-to-computer interfaces. Yes, ladies and gentlemen, we are working on the mind-reading computer. Better yet – the device that lets us communicate to computers in a way we could not before.
What you have there is one way we can use this. This man was paralyzed from the neck down. He managed to get 90% of the tasks he was supposed to correctly. Using only his brain. This kind of technology can offer paralyzed people, people that are trapped in their bodies the freedom they’ve once lost.
But it can do much more. Using it we can one day achieve instant connectivity to anyone on the planet. We can drive complicated machines without any prior training. We can communicate like never before with computers and humans and much more…
…But that will take time. My bet is the close future belongs to touch. And for those embracing this new interaction method – here are a few tips on designing touch user interfaces.
Soon we will be able to download our ego on hard drives, back-up our conscience or be a part of the network.
What will this lead to?
Immortality
Immortality is one the things humans have long been looking for. They have dreamed about it, studied it and even built religions around it.
We dream of immortality when we are kids, when we grow up and even as old people hoping our death can be a step farther from our current existence. Not an end.
What if we would break down a human being to its very core – the mind? Is this all we are? Brains connected to an outer body, helping our mind work in its way around the world. Then that should mean we will have no problem adapting to being a machine computing our thoughts, decisions, lifestyle and others.
We will live in computers, have electric arms and legs, behave almost as if we were alive.
Access to all human knowledge
The internet is not only a web of computers interconnected. It’s probably the greatest thing humans have ever constructed. It’s made of information. Information gathered by our culture in thousands and thousands of years.
All a second away for the downloaded mind. The digital human can access this information almost instant. It can stay connected with every new discovery, it can process problems at a speed we haven’t thought of, it can learn a new language in the blink of an eye.
A new race
Humans, as we are today have been like this for the last 100 000 years. Quite a long time. Something like this, a mix between biology and technology can lead to a new breed of humans. One that are what we call today robots. But with a conscience, brain and the possibility to make decisions.
How far would this race go? We, humans, are better than any species at communicating, inventing, building. At least this is what we like to think of ourselves. We are also pretty good with things like war, destroying, killing.
How far would we go if we were intellectually omnipotent? Would we understand our actions or continue to act like Earth’s plague? Would we evolve or destroy ourselves and everything around?
Lonliness
I had a short debate with one of the most interesting people I have had the pleasure of coming across. He said we are just information and we can be very well digitized.
I would say we are something else. Something we can’t yet comprehend. I say that because beyond our thoughts there are feelings, decisions we are not “aware” of. We love and hate. We are glad to see the sun and enjoy the company of friends. We are thrilled by our children. We dream, we hope.
Would a set of digitized information be able to do all this things? Would it be able to doubt itself? Would it be able to know when wrong and reprogram itself?
And if so – if it were what we are today – wouldn’t it feel anger, sorrow and hate towards the one that made it what it is? Someone imprisoning it in a computer. After all – we all treasure our freedom.
At this point – the digital human, having all the power it can access, hating it’s creators and masters – wouldn’t it rebel against it?
And this is were we should think twice before choosing immortality. For it may cost us more than we are willing to pay for.
2009. After an year of hard work I can say I am amazed of what we, at MB Dragan, have accomplished.
We have launched a lot of great projects, effective campaigns, beautiful and usable websites, some mobile applications, we’ve launched a new mobile marketing division and many others.
We have kept our promise to our old clients and gained new ones.
Our team grew 5 times.
We moved in a new, bigger and nicer office.
Our income grew 10 times.
We opened new offices.
We had fun.
We discovered.
We got angry and joyful.
The most important thing, however, is that we’ve met each other. I am glad to have met you guys. I thank you for all your hard work and all the things you have done this year.
Thank you, in no particular order, Razvan, Irina, Alex, Alina, Andrei, Andreea, Victor, Catalin, Spio, Alin, Tudor, Sorin, Daniel, Anca, Adrian, Cristina, Octav, Gabi, Iulian, Irina for your efforts.
Many thanks to our clients who trusted with their brands and businesses.
Last but not least, thanks to all those reading our blog posts, our twitts, reading our press releases, using the sites we’ve launched, playing the games we launch, interacting with our work.
I remember the story of a roman general that declared war machines can go no further than catapultes. 2000 years later and a few nuclear bombs after, some people might disagree.
As the interactive world keeps changing by the hour here are some of the things that I am sure will make it mainstream, with the help of Internet:
1. Social television
Ever felt like some show is just awesome and you should share it with your buddies? Well, interactive television is only the first step in letting viewers gain ever more control on what they watch, how and when they watch it.
Enter the social television, powered by your friends’ preferences. You will be able to see shows recommended by your friends, watch and comment live TV shows and many others.
2. Mixed-Brand Publications
You like reading the New York Times but you would also read the new Esquire without paying extra? You gonna do it.
By mixing media brands, sites and others you will soon be able to create your very own newspaper, featuring stories in the matter you would read your Feed Reader.
Will this paper be displayed on interactive paper or will it be printed on demand? Will it be based on a subscription or will it be free, advertising based ? Future will tell.
3. Virtual over-the-internet companies
The world is changing and fast. The virtual market is here for the taking. Challenger economies have a lot to offer and developed countries have a lot to gain by tapping in this global pool of talent.
I know companies based in UK, marketed from Germany, researching and doing development in India, having their creative advertising in Tokio, delivering products all over the world.
This is globalization but I am sure something else will emerge. An economy completly free from distinction based on place of birth, color of skin and others.
4. Global access to internet
We will have global broadband access to Internet. Underdeveloped countries will be able to access global informational resources leading a global change on a scale never seen before.
5. Over the internet telepathic communications
Sure, it sounds weird but I am sure at some point we will be able to communicate telepathically and reach new depths in human interaction.
This will break-down cultural and language barriers that kept people appart for so many thousands of years. Imagine an westerner being able to understand the depths of eastern culture, free from misconceptions, misunderstandings and others.
Will it be a chip we’ll use to help us communicate? Will it be a mind scanner we’ll use just as the laptop’s built-in camera ? I don’t know but what I do know is this is something that will lead human kind to new means of interacting and thinking. Which brings us to…
6. Collective thinking
At the moment we are all gathering information in the largest library the Earth had ever had: the Internet. But is that all we can together?
What if we could argue and settle argues between thousands, millions of people in less than a fraction of a second?
What if we could not just work together, live together but also think together?
7. Artificial intellingence
This is something the world has been waiting for such a long time. We want something that would work, think and act for us. Aren’t we lazy?
Google is working on this. Others are too. Will we live to see this happening? I think so.
8. A new ecommerce
A new way of doing commerce will develop. We will have shops that exist both online and offline and you can have the same experience and benefits on each.
You will be able to try on clothes online and save your basket for later purchase offline. You will be able to spend a great afternoon shopping online with your friends and in the same time shop offline with home delivery jumping from one product category to another.
9.The death of the cubicle
People crammed in huge buildings and campuses will become a thing of the past as many jobs are getting less and less location dependent.
New devices as the iPhone or Blackberry are proof that corporate office will shrink ever more untill they will be devices you’ll carry around and use to complete the daily tasks.
10. The death of advertising
Advertising will evolve to Informative Advertising, targeted, permission based, totally interactive and only on demand.
In the end – I don’t know for sure what the future holds but I know that we live interesting times. And some people will take advantage of this.
I love the idea of mobile marketing although I am sure it’s not all it can be. At the moment marketers focus more on the devices and technologies than on the people using them.
Mobile marketing for mobile people
With always on the run professionals it seems the media started shifting from “push” to “offer-on-demand” and what better platform to communicate than mobile devices.
But I see a future of interactive screens, intelligent magazines or even offline user – machine interaction capable of offering the same targeting (or even better) a system like, let’s say, AdWords does. Tomorrow we will be recognized by intelligent public devices that will recommend us products depending on our needs, our profile and more.
Lack of privacy you say? I would argue that maybe we would have a lack of useless advertising and a visually cleaner world.
Now that’s the world I imagine, the advertising served on demand, intelligent and useful advertising, devices independent to the user, interaction ready and able to offer the best possible marketing message. Mobile marketing will be marketing to mobile people, not on mobile devices.
Reading the fact that during a recession Amazon had a 68% boost in revenues, I can’t help but wonder why would business even bother going the usual “brick-and-mortar store” way.
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