5 Stages of Hype Cycles
Written by Mihai Dragan on Monday, July 27th, 2009 ( Start discussion )
Tags: cycle, hype, hype cycle, media, rockstars, technology
You may have seen technologies come and go (remember back in 2000 – “Flash is the next big thing, man!”, followed by many other “next big things” ?). If you’ve been long enough in the industry you are aware that not all hyped technologies ever reach productivity.
This is Probably a Lead Programmer
Recently I came across a very interesting study regarding the hype cycles. Gartner uses this to show how hype evolves and transforms into productivity (not always actually).
1. Technology trigger
Some company or individual discovers some kind of technology or way of using technology that gets lots of press coverage, money, fame, rockstar tours and celebrity endorsments. While many skip all the “rockstar thing” they get geek fans all over the world excited over their discovery.
2. Overinflated Expectations
“Yes, the Google OS cures cancer and fights poverty”. “Of course the iPhone is our best attempt at time travel and teleportation”. You’ve heard these things. You may have even thought or said something like this. It’s either very good marketing or just plain ol’ hype.
3. Disillusionment
“Man, this Java thing is nothing… just a bunch of bull”. People get disillusioned when technology doesn’t live up to their own overinflated expectations so they just abandon the thing. Media does too.
4. Enlightnement
“Yes, maybe Flash is not the best thing but look how pretty video is rendered in it. Hey, YouTube uses it too”. People see that maybe the technology is actually good for something and they start using it. Medium press coverage. Come back tour. With the band.
5. Productivity
“Yes, it took us ten years but we got this show on a road” says the founder, which is now tired and bored. This is the point where the technology is widely accepted, it gets regular reviews, new ways of using it are found every day and it’s here to stay.
The problem with failiures
Most of those that work with technology expect to either be eternally rich and famous after the first stage or…the second. 99 percent fail because they give up at stage 3, the disillusionment.
It is in our nature to ask for approval from our fellow people. It is because of our short life we demand fast success. But it just doesn’t work that way.
